Curator’s Game of the Week WLOCP in Jacksonville The annual World’s Largest Cocktail Party is here! I talked about the cultural event at the blog. Now it’s time to talk about the game itself. The Gators come into this game down, but not out. Dan Mullen’s squad has three losses: Alabama, Kentucky, and LSU. They need a win to salvage anything from this season. They’re going to have to play the best on defense that they’ve played all year. This will require avoiding “3rd and Grantham.” If you give up 49 to LSU you spen two weeks trying to hatch ways to stop Stetson Bennett and the boys. They cannot let Georgia score at will because, let’s face it, Florida isn’t going to score much this week. Georgia comes in riding high. Ranked #1 in the nation, they have beaten a ranked opponent four times this year. Florida gave up 49 points in their last game. Georgia has given up 46 point this season. Now that’s some numbers that would make Coach Erk Russell proud. “If we score we might win but if they don’t score, we can’t lose” was his quote. That’s Georgia’s key to the game. Shut down the Gator offense and set Bennett and the Dawgs’ offense on cruise control. That assessment sounds pretty bleak for Florida. But if you dig in the archives, you’ll find several examples of a team riding high into Jacksonville against an unranked opponent only to have their season derailed. This rivalry is personal. It’s emotional. These two schools fight over recruits. So many of these kids know each other. They’ve played each other for years. Some even played together. I have friends and family on both sides of this divide. I’ve lived this rivalry. The atmosphere of the game the history of the rivalry, the emotions, it all gels at kickoff and you can throw the records out the window. This is the game to watch this weekend. Coach’s Game of the Week Michigan @ Michigan State In 113 matchups dating back to 1898, only 1 time has this rivalry seen a showdown of top 10 teams. This year, it means a little more to take the Paul Bunyan Trophy home with you. The trophy, a 5 foot tall statue of the folk hero himself, isn’t much of a looker. It lacks the flash and sophistication of todays game. However, it perfectly represents the true people of the state of Michigan. It’s rugged, rustic, tough….and ugly. In 1999, Michigan Head Coach Lloyd Carr stated “it’s the ugliest trophy in college football, but when you don’t have him, you miss him.” This matchup always brings a little heat to the Michigan fall but with playoff hopes of 2 undefeated teams in the balance, expect the fire to be stoked. These 2 teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. Both averaging around 5 TD’s a game, allowing just over 2. One team leaning on 250+ yards a game rushing, with the other finding that chunk through the air. 2 coaches who played in the Big 10, coached in the Big 10, found their ways to the NFL and back again to their home conference. This one has star power and meaningful ness that the Big 10 has been missing in recent years. The pick wasn’t easy, but I think it will come down to Sparty’s defense. While the 3 offenses are so evenly matched, The Michigan State defense is allowing over 400 yards a game, 285 through the air. If Wolverine QB Cade McNamera can continue to take care of the football (1 lone interception through 7 games) and move it efficiently, I think a big day could be ahead for Michigan’s offense. Can Sparty’s big passing offense match? When you think of big time Big 10 matchups you think of a game won between the tackles. That won’t be the case here. Let ‘er rip! Curator’s Upset Alert Penn State @ Ohio State It’s gonna happen eventually. You know it and I know it. Ohio State is going to choke. They always do. The trick is knowing when. Penn State is coming off two losses, including a pretty embarrassing upset by Illinois. James Franklin has been mentioned as a candidate for the LSU job for a reason. He’s going to get his team prepared. The idea of the Nittany Lions losing three in a row is almost unthinkable. The Buckeyes have been on a tear since that early loss to Oregon.but let’s face it, most teams could have gone on a tear against that schedule. I’m still not impressed with Ohio State. This is a beatable team and Penn State can do it. Find a way to contain TreVeyon Henderson and win the game. Period. Coach’s Upset Alert Florida State @ Clemson The anticipation of this season for Nole fans was only heightened by their opening week overtime thriller with Notre Dame. This was the year that this fantastic Florida State coaching staff finally turned the corner and returned the Noles to their legendary greatness! Then they started 0-4. It’s hard to win in college football. It’s harder when you’re taking over a team that hasn’t done much of it. Florida State needs one more year of recruiting and development before they’re ready to jump back in the conversation. Make no mistake, they may have the best coaching staff in America, and they WILL be there. There isn’t a doubt in my mind. They’ve rebounded and won 3 in a row, including an impressive win on the road at North Carolina, they just need one BIG win to push them over the hump mentally. Meanwhile, Dabo and his bunch are in the midst of a full season-saving mission and a QB controversy. Life after Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been easy (as should be expected) and they are working hard to find themselves offensively. Averaging just 20 points a game, they are a far cry from recent years and need in the worst way to find their groove fast. Their name still carries so much weight, deservedly so, and this is definitely still a game America would expect them to win. Don’t forget to add a little animosity over the COVID debacle last year when Clemson traveled to Florida and stayed the night in a hotel spending hundreds of thousands of dollars only to find out that Florida State had cancelled the game the morning of over COVID testing protocols and the back and forth exchange of words between Norvel and Swinney that followed. You’ve got a team who is just starting to come into their own against a team who is reaching for answers. Smells like upset. This should come down to the end in less than 40 total points. Exciting, but I think the Noles may just find a way to get this one done. Curator’s Picks (23-17) Georgia over Florida Ohio State over Penn State Ole Miss over Auburn Michigan State over Michigan Kentucky over Mississippi State Coach’s Picks (22-18)
Georgia over Florida Ohio State over Penn State Ole Miss over Auburn Michigan over Michigan State Kentucky over Mississippi State
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The ABG Poll
1. Georgia 20 (2) 2. Oklahoma 17 3. Cincinnati 15 4. (Tie) Alabama 12 Michigan 12 6. Wake Forest 9 7. Michigan State 7 8. Ohio State 5 9. Oregon 4 10. Ole Miss 3 Also receiving votes: Iowa 2, Kentucky 2, Notre Dame 2 Curator’s Game of the Week Clemson @ Pitt It’s a pretty lackluster week for big games. But some good football is still out there . I’m picking this one because there’s more here than this game is getting credit for. Clemson is the butt of many jokes despite being 4-2 with one of those losses coming to the #1 team in the nation. Pitt broke the Top 25 , finally, with critics pointing at that loss to Western Michigan. Clemson has struggled with injuries and the loss of Trevor Lawrence, et al to last year’s NFL draft. But they are still winning football games. They’re still led by Dabo Swinney and they’re still a tough team. They’re still in a fight for the Atlantic Division and they need this win. Pitt is fighting off challengers from atop the Coastal Division. That lone loss is what’s keeping them out of the playoff conversation right now. If they can continue winning and get some help they may find their way into that conversation yet. These two are better teams than advertised. Expect this one to be better than expected. Coach’s Game of the Week Oklahoma State @ Iowa State The rankings would have you believe that this game should be no contest and the Cowpokes should roll to victory. While I do believe they will finish Saturday undefeated, Coach Gundy’s crew has some work ahead of them this weekend in Ames. RB Jaylen Warren has stepped right in for Carolina Panthers draft pick Chuba Hubbard and the Cowboy offense hasn’t missed a beat as he is rushing for 117 yards a game at the halfway point of the season. The thing that makes this game interesting is the turnover issue. Spencer Sanders has thrown 5 interceptions in their 6 games and the cowboy offense has laid down a tough 9 fumbles (lost 3). Add an extra interception from Shane Illingworth and you get to 9 total turnovers. Too many balls on the ground and in the hands of the defense are absolute killers. The Cyclone offense is still in great hands led by QB Brock Purdy who is completing 74% of his passes. That’s good enough for 2nd best in the Nation. Breece Hall has had no trouble finding pay dirt with 10 rushing TD’s already and both of their losses have come against top opponents. Often overlooked, Iowa State is traditionally good for 1 major upset a year. Watch for this one to be close! Curator’s Upset Alert Ohio State @ Indiana At fist glance you’d be crazy to call this alert. But true upset alerts are supposed to be far-fetched. But look closer. The Hoosiers are coming off a nail biter against Michigan State. A loss is a loss but that game gave them something to build on. They know they can play with a tough opponent. Their goal will be to keep it close and let the psychology of the game be their teammate. They’ll need to play great defense against the run to keep this one close. Ohio State comes in as the clear favorite but they don’t have much resumé to back that up. They’ve played one decent football team this year...and they lost. They’re highly ranked in the polls due to name recognition. Prime time in front of a national TV audience? It has the makings of the legendary Tyler Trent game at Purdue. Remember how that turned out for the Buckeyes? Advantage, Hoosiers. Don’t count Indiana out. Coach’s Upset Alert LSU @ Ole Miss Upsets are largely fed by one thing and one thing only. Mentality. It takes a perfect storm of mentality on both ends and I think we just might have such a storm here. Ole miss is riding high having only felt defeat at the hands of Alabama (welcome to the club). No one except Bama has held them to less than 30 points this season, they’re off of 2 exciting wins and they all managed to escape Knoxville last week without any serious golf ball or mustard bottle related injuries. Life is good in Oxford. Enter Coach O, a man with nothing to lose. A fallen National Champion coach on his dream job deathbed. His entire situation is what I believe is wrong with college football, but that’s a story for another day. Here we see a man who is out to enjoy his last few outings at his dream job and a team who is going to be willing to run through whatever is in front of them for their beloved exiting head coach. The bayonets are fixed on the bayou. Nothing to lose. There’s no holding that Tiger. Curator’s Picks (21-14) OLE MISS OVER LSU PURDUE OVER WISCONSIN NOTRE DAME OVER USC OKLAHOMA STATE OVER IOWA ST CLEMSON OVER PITT Coach’s Picks (21-14)
LSU OVER OLE MISS PURDUE OVER WISCONSIN NOTRE DAME OVER USC OKLAHOMA STATE OVER IOWA ST CLEMSON OVER PITT You’ll never see a “preseason poll” here. It’s just silly. Instead, we prefer to sit back a bit and let the chaos unfold. Once college football has done its thing and we’re a little more satisfied with our knowledge of how the teams are really going to do, then we bring you a poll. And so we present our first poll of the season. It is expanded to 15 from our usual 10. We’ll see how the voting goes next week before we determine if that continues. The ABG Poll
1. Georgia (2) 20 2. Cincinnati 18 3. (Tie) Oklahoma 15 Oklahoma State 15 5. Alabama 9 6. Michigan State 6 7. (Tie) Wake Forest 5 Oregon 5 9. (Tie) Kentucky 4 Michigan 4 Ohio State 4 12. Penn State 3 13. Iowa 2 14. (Tie) Coastal Carolina 1 Texas A&M 1 Curator’s Game of the Week Kentucky @ Georgia Curator Sam Burnham Not many people are giving The Wildcats a chance this week. But then again, not many people were counting on Kentucky being ranked #8 or undefeated with wins over Florida and LSU. Yet here we are. Kentucky got to this point with offense, particularly through the air. They’ve put up some impressive numbers with their passing game. That’s exactly what they’ll have to do against an incredibly stingy Georgia defense. Being 25 point favorites in this game is likely a stretch, even for Georgia. The Dawgs arguably have the best defense in the country. But they have to move the ball. They have to control the game tempo. They have to have offensive production. Look for this one to be closer that the experts think. Coach’s Game of the Week - Auburn @ Arkansas ciach Drew Burnham Expectations are everything in college football. They’re what create pressure on some teams and what make 1 sweet win mean a successful season for others. This game is a prime example of what that looks like. Arkansas feels like a hot name right now and the country is in love with Sam Pittman. Auburn is raising a lot of eyebrows right now and there are genuinely people asking (it’s a crazy world) how long Brian Harsin will be on the plains. Both of these teams are 4-2. Auburn’s 2 losses are to top 10 Penn State on the road and the new #1 team in the country by a humble 24 points. They are unranked this week. Arkansas has dropped back to back games against Georgia where they were shutout and beat by 5 touchdowns and a shootout loss against the Lane Train that saw their defense allow 52 points. They’re securely still in the poll at #17. Why? Expectations. Arkansas has very little expectations and Auburn expects to be in the Playoff hunt every season. The Tigers lack a quality win on the resume, but have performed better against common opponents. Arkansas is much improved and they cause a lot of problems for people. Their culture and love for one another make them special and hard to beat. Auburn, despite 2 losses to 2 of the best teams in the country (shucks), is still Auburn. This one will be worth your time. Going to be fun to watch. Curator’s Upset Alert - Army @ Wisconsin Every season seems to start with talking heads hyping up the Badgers and Wisconsin always seems to fall short. They come into this game at 2-3. They looked slightly impressive in a close loss to Penn State before being blasted by Notre Dame and Michigan. Their victories? Eastern Michigan and Illinois. Army comes to town with a 4-1 record. No they don’t have any big wins yet but they’re due for one. The Blck Knights play with discipline and professionalism. That’s the way they wake up, eat breakfast, go to class, train, practice. It’s how they do everything. It’s the Army way. I remember Oklahoma eking out a victory over Army a few years ago and the equipment staff from Army tweeting a photo of the immaculately spotless lock room they left in Norman. Such commitment and attention to detail is on the road with Army this week. In case you aren’t familiar with the history of Camp Randall Stadium, that property used to be an Army post. They may be on the road but they’ll still be on base. They’ll show up big and the Badgers won’t know what to do. Look for Army to pull off the upset. Coach’s Upset Alert - Michigan State @ Indiana Michigan State is off to a hot start at 6-0. It’s hard to win in college football and anytime you can string that many together you must have something positive going on. With that being said, if you look at those 6, they have had a pretty favorable lineup. Their lone ranked win came against Miami who is 1-3 against FBS competition this year with a win against Sun Belt App State. It’s not their fault, and all they can do is beat the teams on their schedule, which they have, but those are the facts of their situation. They survived a 3 point scare from Nebraska and have yet to put on a truly start to finish dominant performance. There’s a saying in our profession, “don’t tell me about the labor just show me the baby”. They’ve gotten results and, at the end of the day, that’s all that really matters. I just think that they might be viewed as having a little more lead in their pencil than they actually have. On the flipside, Indiana drags a 2-3 record into this weekend. They haven’t made much noise and many will think this one shouldn’t be competitive, but let’s have a look at those losses. Losses on the road to #2 Iowa and top 10 Penn State and a home loss to #3 Cincinatti. If the season ended today, 2 of their 3 losses would be against playoff teams. They genuinely have one of the toughest schedules in the nation. This team is much better than people give them credit for. It WILL hurt their case being without QB Michael Penix this week after separating his throwing shoulder against Penn State, but schematically that presents some issues for an opponents defense. Who’s going to take the snaps? What are his strengths and weaknesses? What will they scheme up offensively to best put him in position to be successful? Will it be a change from their normal offense? There are many questions and few answers for a defensive gameplan in this situation and that presents and interesting dynamic. Keep an eye on Bloomington, this could get interesting. Curator’s Picks (17-13) OKLAHOMA OVER TCU UGA OVER KENTUCKY OLE MISS OVER TENNESSEE ARKANSAS OVER AUBURN OKLAHOMA STATE OVER TEXAS Coach’s Picks (17-13)
OKLAHOMA OVER TCU UGA OVER KENTUCKY OLE MISS OVER TENNESSEE ARKANSAS OVER AUBURN OKLAHOMA STATE OVER TEXAS Game of the Week - Curator Sam Burnham Arkansas @ Ole Miss I saw a joke last Saturday night about Ole Miss and Arkansas facing each other in “the consolation game” this week. I got a good chuckle out of that but last week puts a bit of incentive on this week for both the Rebels and the Razorbacks. Both of these teams came into last week with the wind in their sails. These teams each played one of the best teams in the nation on the road. Both had similar disappointing results. But neither of these teams really had anything to lose last week. No one was really surprised that Georgia and Alabama both won their games. While the losses were setbacks for two up and coming teams, they still have their realistic goals in reach. The rest of the season begins this week. Ole Miss and Arkansas both need a win. Two straight losses would be a setback. A strong rebound would get the winner back on track. Both of these teams are well coached. Sam Pittman and Lane Kiffin both know what needs to be done. Not only are they both rallying their troops, they will both come into this game with a plan. If you want to see two teams lay it all on the line, this will be a great choice. Game of the Week - Coach Drew Burnham Penn State @ Iowa The front half of this season has given us plenty of excitement. Clemson is unranked, a group of 5 team is in the top 5, and Kentucky and Wake Forest remain among the final unbeatens in the country. Now, for the first time since Minnesota played Wisconsin in 1962, the Big 10 will have a top 5 matchup not featuring Ohio State or Michigan because we have a top 5 showdown in…IOWA CITY? The Hawkeyes have been rolling thus far at the hands of the #2 scoring defense in the Nation allowing only 11 points a game. Both teams have what we thought were quality wins at the time, (Iowa over Iowa State and Penn State over Wisconsin and Auburn) but have since lost some of their shine. Both teams have felt a tight game in the 4thquarter. What will make the difference in this game is a team quality from long ago, an Antique attribute, a dusty trusty. It’s going to come down to the ghost of college football past: Defense. Nobody gets stops anymore. Nobody grinds games out into the 4th quarter. Nobody drags offenses out into the deep water for a good, old fashioned struggle. Nobody but Iowa, that is. This has all the makings of an instant classic. First team to 20 wins. They’ll wave at the children’s hospital to start the 4thquarter and after that someone will make a play to win this one late. Lane said it best. Get your popcorn ready. Game of Interest - Curator Sam Burnham Georgia @ Auburn Every year we hear about “The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.” It might seem like a cliche but it matters. No one has to tell either of these teams what this game means. They know. Everyone in two states knows. I’m not brave, delusional, or crazy enough to put Georgia on upset alert. But I’m also not foolish enough to think that Auburn has no chance. They can play spoiler here and with the exception of the Iron Bowl, there’s no week of the year they would rather play that role. I say all that to say this one is going to be better than all the CFB talking heads will admit. This rivalry has a crazy history and I don’t expect this installment to be any different. I think Georgia will win this game but don’t sleep on the Tigers. Upset Alert - Coach Drew Burnham Texas vs Oklahoma The Red River shootout will not have any of the qualities I mentioned in the Iowa vs Penn State game. Sark vs. Lincoln, first one to get a stop wins. Texas has been working to establish themselves under new leadership while Oklahoma has sputtered early this year. The Sooners have won their 4 FBS games against highly average competition by an average of 5 points. Battle Tested? Yes. Do they have the killer instinct and explosiveness that we’ve come to expect from Oklahoma? Not that we’ve seen. There is an odd place where a team feels invincible because they haven’t lost even though they’ve played far below their standard or capability. That’s where Oklahoma is living right now and The Horns haven’t done quite enough to make them think they’re a true threat. A lot of things go out the window in such a big rivalry game, but it doesn’t change the tough time that Boomer is working through. Their program needs a humbling loss to reset and get back to what we’re used to seeing from them and I think Sark is just the man to oblige them and collect his first signature win as a graduate of the Saban Coaches Upgrade program. Curator’s Picks (13-12) Georgia over Auburn Kentucky over LSU Arkansas over Ole Miss Oklahoma over Texas Iowa over Penn State Coach’s Picks (13-12)
Georgia over Auburn Kentucky over LSU Ole Miss over Arkansas Texas over Oklahome Iowa over Penn State Game of the Week - Curator Sam Burnham Arkansas @ Georgia A noon kickoff with two Top 10 ranked SEC opponents is a rarity. When this one was planned no one was expecting Arkansas to be rolling through their season in such fashion. Yet, here we are. The Hawgs have knocked off Texas and Texas A&M in impressive displays. There’s no doubt that both of these former SWC rivals were more talented than Arkansas but Sam Pittman out-coached Jimbo and Sark. On the field the Razorbacks aren’t just executing their assignments, they’re doing it with heart and commitment to the team. This is a team consistently playing better than their talent. The Dawgs are a clear favorite in this game. I’m not calling for an upset or anything here. Georgia’s defense is likely the best in the nation. This is a well-coached team of incredibly talented players -a clear contender for the national championship. Three weeks ago this was considered to be the kind of game you expect to see at noon. Now it’s a prime time draw kicking off at noon. If Arkansas comes out with the focus, intensity, and commitment we’ve seen out of them all season, this game will live up to the hype. But this is not the week for Georgia to have one of their flat weeks. I think the Dawgs survive but the Hawgs will make this one fun to watch. Game of the Week - Coach Drew Burnham Cincinnati @ Notre Dame College football is a big fun world. I hate to write on the same team 2 weeks in a row, this this matchup was begging for it! This is a “prove it” game for both of these teams. You think you should be in the conversation at the end of the year? Here. Beat them. Prove it. Notre Dame has found their legs on defense the last 2 weeks under new Defensive Coordinator Marcus Freeman. The Irish have forced 7 turnovers in the last two weeks and last week managed to outscore a very good Wisconsin team by themselves. After a rocky first 2 weeks, they sure have played like the wind was at their backs recently. Let’s look more at Marcus Freeman to talk about what makes this matchup interesting. Freeman was hired by the Irish this offseason after serving as the DC at what program? That’s right, he came from Cincinnati. Playing your former team is always a strange deal, but it’s like having a cheat sheet as a play caller. Intimate knowledge of what a play caller wants to hang his hat on, his play selection thought process and experience seeing all the setups every day makes a huge difference. The chess game between coaches goes up a notch. Do I do what he knows I want to do? Do I jump out of my comfort zone a little to go somewhere he doesn’t expect? There will be a lot of cat and mouse in this one and I, for one, can’t get enough of that stuff. Cincinnati is off an undefeated regular season and a 3 pointPeach Bowl Loss to Georgia. They have certainly handled their business through their 1st 3 this season and seem primed for another New Years 6 birth. They don’t get many chances to make BIG TIME Nation wide statements often in the American Conference. That shouldn’t be the case. It legitimately is the 3rdor 4th best conference in the country, but alas, people get distracted by the shiny Power 5. People hate Notre Dame or love Notre Dame, there isn’t much grey area. One thing that all of those people agree on is that college football NEEDS Notre Dame. A win against the Irish is always a big deal and would do wonders to the selection committee. The Bearcats have been one of the most impressive teams in the country on this run under Luke Fickell, but haven’t managed to beat a single ranked opponent from the mystical Power 5. Not one. They need this win to solidify themselves in the same conversation as the Chris Petersen Boise teams, the UCF teams from a couple years back and the other outsiders that always thought they deserved a seat at the table. If you want to party with the big boys you gottawhip one of them first. Those are the rules. This one is going to be exciting! Upset Alert - Curator Sam Burnham Florida @ Kentucky This is a game that probably shouldn’t be that great but it will be better than expected. Kentucky has found some offense this season. So far, they’ve also found a way to win. It hasn’t always been pretty but it has been effective. Florida comes into Lexington needing a win to retain an opportunity to get to Atlanta this December. Between moping about that pesky loss to Alabama and not really taking Kentucky seriously, the Gators are vulnerable this week. The Wildcats are about to catch them off guard and cause them some serious trouble. Upset Alert - Coach Drew Burnham Ole Miss @ Alabama Speaking of writing on 2 teams twice, I hope you saw the foreshadowing last week and saw this one coming. Like a bad Bernie Sanders meme, I am once again asking for you to pay attention to this upset alert. I have been the king of the near miss this year. Everyone I have put on notice has escaped by the skin of their teeth or they’ve been knocked off. Oregon to Fresno. Florida State to Jacksonville State. Alabama to Florida. Last week I told you that the first Saban assistant to beat him would be the Lane Train and I meant it. These 2 put on a classic in Oxford last year. I don’t think the Rebels will sneak up on anyone, but that offense looks explosive. “But coach, they haven’t exactly played Alabama type competition!” Yea, that’s fine. When have you ever known Lane to not be able to put plenty of points on the board? That man can score and that’s what it’s going to take to beat Alabama. You’ve got to turn it into a shootout. They’re not going to lose 10-7. That’s not how this works. You’ve got to drag them out into deep water and make them punch with you over and over again. That’s the pressure you put on them. They are too good offensively to try to shorten the game and grind one out. That’s not Lane’s style. I haven’t seen the line, not much of a sports gambler (ya know, with the job and all), but I’d take the over in this one. Regardless of what it is. Curator’s Picks (11-9) Georgia over Arkansas Notre Dame over Cincinnati Alabama over Ole Miss Oklahoma State over Baylor LSU over Auburn Coach’s Picks (10-10)
GEORGIA OVER ARKANSAS NOTRE DAME OVER CINCINNATI OLE MISS OVER ALABAMA OKLAHOMA STATE OVER BAYLOR AUBURN OVER LSU |
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